that draws further attention is the lubrication effect of melt water. During summer, melt water flows into crevasses, to reach the Ironman marvel studios 3d night light led bottom layers between the glacier and base rock. This may exert a lubrication effect. If this phenomenon occurs on a large scale, the outflow of the ice sheet may accelerate. Another
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Emission Scenarios. A Special report of working group III of the intergovernmental panel on climate change eds. Nakicenovi N. and Swart, R.. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. • Intensive studies have investigated the factors affecting contemporary sea-level rise. Their results are close to a quantitative explanation for the budget of the past sea-level rise. During the th century, thermal expansion and melting of mountain-based glacier and ice caps predominated. Although the roles of the Greenland Ice Ironman marvel studios 3d night light led Sheet and West Antarctic Ice Sheet were unknown previously, recent studies reveal that melting and outflow of these ice sheets have proceeded since the end of th century. Responses to climate change fall into two broad measures, mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation is to stabilize the climate system through the reduction of GHG emissions and sequestration of GHGs by forests, etc. As mitigation aims to keep climate change within the level to which human society and the ecosystem can adapt, it can be considered to avoid an “unmanageable situation” induced by a significant climate change. This unmanageable situation includes a large-scale irreversible change including disintegration of the GIS and WAIS. Isobe summarizes the effects of sea-level rise on the design standards of facilities, including wave run-up, overtopping, weight of amour blocks, and stability of breakwaters. A primary effect of sea-level rise is an increase in the water depth in front of the structures, which, in turn, increases the wave height and makes the wave breaking point closer to the structures. These changes eventually cause higher wave run-up heights on seawall slopes. If a tropical cyclone becomes stronger, higher incident waves will occur, resulting in an even higher run-up. Isobe shows a comparison of run-up heights on a model seawall in Tokyo Bay, calculated for the conditions with and without sea-level rise and stronger typhoons. As a model tropical cyclone, Ise Bay Typhoon in with a pressure depression of hPa was taken, because it caused a historically high storm surge of . m in Japan.
If a cm sea-level rise and a stronger typhoon with increase in the pressure depression are assumed, the difference in the maximum run-up height with and without the assumptions is more than three times larger than the sea-level rise of cm. This means that, for the planning of a countermeasure, it is not enough to raise the seawalls by the amount of projected sea-level rise, but necessary to take into account the increased run-up height. These studies utilize the Bruun Rule, and concern has been expressed as to whether it is a valid approach for estimating beach erosion caused by sea-level rise , SCOR. As sea-level rise is a global phenomenon, we need relevant ways to model the effects of sea-level rise on beach erosion. The Bruun Rule seems to be an important tool for this, if it is used with careful examination of applicability to avoid misuse such as application to coral and mud beaches. Another factor which makes national and global assessment difficult is the lack of data for the are slope, sand diameter of beaches and incident waves. This is always a barrier to impact assessments. As the superposition of sea-level rise and stronger typhoons cause higher risk, the future trend of typhoons is a major concern from the viewpoint of coastal protection. In this regard, Oouchi and Kitoh indicate that the number of stronger typhoons will increase, while the total number of typhoons may decrease. On the other hand, large economic growth is expected in Asia. If the coastal protection is upgraded accordingly, in spite of the huge population growth, the population at risk will be reduced to a level below the current number. ure ure shows a large reduction of the population at risk in Asia . This result suggests it is possible to reduce the impacts of sea-level rise if the benefits of economic growth are properly utilized. The present population at risk ,, people living in areas inundated by a year storm surge is estimated to be million people worldwide. This number will increase to and million people by for the cases without and with coastal protection, respectively . Note that the A scenario gives the largest number, and the numbers of people at risk vary with scenarios. For example, the people at risk in are approximately , and million for A B and respectively. A fact
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